For Arab states, controlling their borders is often a challenging business. Cross-border cooperation and physical measures, aided by the latest technology, may help. Beggar-my-neighbour policies certainly won’t.
Yemen – coalition offensive at Hodeida not advancing. Political objectives not clear, Saudi/UAE differences. UN peace plan disrupted.
Two full weeks into the attack, the more pessimistic scenarios are looking increasingly likely; President Hadi’s relations with the UAE improve after a meeting with MBZ; other important developments go unnoticed.
The boundaries of Arab states, mainly drawn by colonial powers, have shown remarkable durability. In some instances, these boundaries have been challenged but such challenges have generally failed to change the map of the region.
UAE deploys troops in Socotra provoking local protests and anger from Hadi government officials; Saudi Arabia intervenes, solves the dispute and deploys its own troops.
Yemen war deadlocked. Those doing the fighting mainly Yemenis and African mercenaries. Vast Saudi and UAE arms purchases from US and Europe despite increasing resistance.
In the light of ongoing and foreseeable events around the Arabian peninsula last week’s sell-off of oil appears perverse.
Yemen – deadlock after three years’ war, with the Saudi coalition mis-perceiving the indigenous Huthi movement as an Iranian puppet, and the Huthis still in control of territory including the capital, but increasingly corrupt and oppressive. Population destitute and dying. Some hints of a negotiation. UN and outside powers may be reviewing a policy which has become untenable.
MBS in Washington and to tour America. A heavy agenda, probably not well prepared.
MBZ effective ruler of UAE for 10 years and more. Adventurous policies. Links with MBS, but different objectives in Yemen.