Syria – US permits and then opposes Turkish assault on the Kurdish north. Fears that IS may rise from the ashes.
Donald Trump is not being as inconsistent over the Middle East as the news flow may have you believe.
Haftar’s LNA remains stuck around Tripoli. More bloodshed, but not comparable with true civil war. International community ineffective.
Erdoğan/Putin rapprochement – Turkey slipping away from the West, but in Syria losing ground to Asad backed by Moscow.
A stunt by a Bahraini protester against the recent executions raises important questions.
Syria – inconclusive fighting in Idlib province and elsewhere. Peace talks not dead.
Libya – stalemate, but a success by the Tripoli forces provokes action by Haftar which could amount to a war crime. More evidence that the UAE and Turkey are involved in a proxy war. US no policy.
Istanbul election defeat accelerates gradual ebbing of the AKP’s popularity, but President Erdoğan still holds other cards; a slow down in Turkish foreign military activity.
Since the beginning of the year, the development of relations between Iraq and Turkey has gained real momentum. The focus is on trade, water and the reconstruction of Iraq.
Festival marking end of Ramadan probably 5 June. Long holidays, traditional family celebrations, a travel boom. Clash with the cricket World Cup. Multiple wars continue.