Too many players engaged on both sides in Libya’s civil war to assume that Khalifa Haftar will emerge victorious. America is the wild card.
While a broader ceasefire generally holds, the battle for a small village in North Syria has important implications for the Syrian regime, the Kurds, Putin and Erdogan.
The military balance shifts against Turkey and its Arab allies as the YPG strikes a deal agreement with al-Assad and Russia backs Syria over Turkey.
Syria – US permits and then opposes Turkish assault on the Kurdish north. Fears that IS may rise from the ashes.
Donald Trump is not being as inconsistent over the Middle East as the news flow may have you believe.
Haftar’s LNA remains stuck around Tripoli. More bloodshed, but not comparable with true civil war. International community ineffective.
Erdoğan/Putin rapprochement – Turkey slipping away from the West, but in Syria losing ground to Asad backed by Moscow.
A stunt by a Bahraini protester against the recent executions raises important questions.
Syria – inconclusive fighting in Idlib province and elsewhere. Peace talks not dead.
Libya – stalemate, but a success by the Tripoli forces provokes action by Haftar which could amount to a war crime. More evidence that the UAE and Turkey are involved in a proxy war. US no policy.