Summary: with the world’s attention focussed on the Ukraine war and Donald Trump’s efforts to end it on terms that will appeal to Vladimir Putin – an unlikely gambit but one he hopes will secure him the Nobel Peace Prize – a shocking report about the IDF’s conduct has had limited press coverage.
Weaponising humiliation Read More »
Summary: Riyadh’s surprise decision to start to unwind the voluntary cuts from 1 April was probably the ‘least bad’ available option despite the revenue implications for both Saudi Aramco and the Kingdom itself. However, its pretext of “market stability” makes no sense in the prevailing circumstances.
Oil: Riyadh Blinks Read More »
Summary: the family of the Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad made billions running the Captagon trade but his overthrow does not mean the end of the drug’s production in Syria and other Middle East countries.
Assad’s gone but Captagon hangs on Read More »
Summary: Europe and NATO have been shaken to the core by Trump’s tactics as he vies to secure quick deals on three fronts with a meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Trump aims for a trifecta Read More »
Summary: the decision to pull the plug on USAID has ricochet around the world and in Iraq its impact is being felt most harshly in programmes established to support women and displaced families.
Iraq feels the pain of America First Read More »
Summary: Donald Trump threw his Arab allies into disarray and dismay with the announcement that the US would take control of Gaza; according to the US president its nearly two million people, already traumatised by a brutal war, will be relocated to a “beautiful place.”
Trump riffs on Gaza Read More »
Summary: the overthrow of the Assad dictatorship has been followed by the rapid consolidation of power under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa as he methodically builds a new deep state.
Arab Digest long read: Syria’s new deep state Read More »
Summary: the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad has created both grave challenges and big opportunities for the Kurdish Region of Iraq.
Assad’s fall and Iraqi Kurdistan Read More »
Summary: demand for oil in Saudi Aramco’s ‘special customer’, China, seems set to plateau very soon, even if it has not already. Other customers are unlikely to take up the slack. This has “massive implications” for the Kingdom’s revenue stream even before the end of the current decade.
Oil: China — ‘special’ no more? Read More »
Summary: the threat of trade wars makes forecasting the oil price in 2025 even more hazardous than usual. However, based on the ‘known knowns’ one can safely assume that the downward pressure we saw through 2024 will persist. My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore US$65 per barrel.
AD’s energy analyst makes his call on oil in 2025 Read More »