Syria – fighting continues, mainly in and around Idlib between the Syrian army and jihadis. International complications.
Since the beginning of the year, the development of relations between Iraq and Turkey has gained real momentum. The focus is on trade, water and the reconstruction of Iraq.
Festival marking end of Ramadan probably 5 June. Long holidays, traditional family celebrations, a travel boom. Clash with the cricket World Cup. Multiple wars continue.
Syria – IS eliminated as a territory. Regime still seeking full control, but (about) five other armies have their own agendas.
Mayoral elections do not go Erdoğan’s way, his first experience of the tendency of the democratic pendulum to swing. A test for Turkish democracy.
Trump announces a U-turn on the Golan Heights. General condemnation. A boost for Netanyahu’s election prospects.
Syria- IS fighting in the last ditch, outside powers manoeuvring for advantage.
With its usual problems plus over a million Syrian refugees Jordan needs support. Some positive developments in the region.
sectarianism is a symptom of the problem, not the underlying problem itself. Many of the region’s conflicts are more about ethnic identity and nationalism, but Arab dictators use sectarianism to bolster their positions.
IS all but defeated in Syria, reduced to guerrilla tactics as in Iraq and elsewhere. Remains a terrorist threat along with al-Qa’ida and other fragments.