Turkey, Russia and Syria
Summary: Erdoğan/Putin rapprochement – Turkey slipping away from the West, but in Syria losing ground to Asad backed by Moscow.
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Russia
The price of oil
Unforeseen rise in the oil price. Middle East factors include Saudi requirements and expected sanctions on Iran.
Sisi’s new foreign policy
Sisi is developing a new foreign policy which could make Egypt a new ideological power in the region if it it is not foreclosed by domestic problems or old allies.
Where’s Hariri ?
Hariri still detained in Riyadh, next moves uncertain. Another own goal by Saudi Arabia following the dispute with Qatar.
The Future of the Middle East
Final chapter in forthcoming e-book considers what will happen when the Saudi and Egyptian regimes fall and the West’s struggle against Jihad.
King Salman goes to Moscow
The first visit of a reigning Saudi king to Moscow. Syria/Iran, oil, business on the agenda. Some unpublished detail.
Qatar: what is the endgame?
A diplomatic solution to the current crisis, albeit one which falls short of the status quo ante and which may yet take some time to materialise, still looks to be the most likely endgame. However, the possibility of a major and sustained rift in the GCC cannot be totally discounted, especially if the current policy divide in Washington persists.
The New Neocons and the Middle East
Chapter 11 of new Arab Digest / Global Policy Journal e-book argues that there are some parallels between what seems to be happening presently inside the Trump Administration and the shifting dynamics inside the Administration of George W Bush which led to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Peering Ahead in the Middle East
Tenth chapter of new Arab Digest / Global Policy Journal e-book considers the breakdown of the old order in the region, takes a bold look at the future and concludes with some advice for western policymakers.
Riyalpolitik
Last year was a record breaker for defence sales and the Middle East was the largest importing region. France and Russia have stepped in where the US has stepped back.