Summary: with non-OPEC+ output likely to exceed growth in consumption, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above US$80pb. My forecast for 31 December 2024: US$70pb.
Summary: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin surprised observers with a quick trip this week to meet with the UAE’s MbZ and the Saudi Crown Prince MbS. The warm and effusive welcomes that greeted him in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh bode ill for the Biden presidency.
Summary: as the Gaza wars rages on a lesson that should be remembered is that after a decade of upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa states in the region used diplomacy, not military action, to ease tensions and achieve a stable regional order.
Summary: although OPEC+ will almost certainly extend existing cuts at its 26 November meeting and might agree modest additional trimming, growth in non-OPEC+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024.
Summary: last week, we looked at current theatres of war in Sudan, Libya and Yemen. Now, as the Gaza war rages on, we turn to Syria.
Summary: after Russia, Iraq is the second largest generator of methane into the atmosphere from the practice of flaring, a procedure that is damaging the health of the people and costing the country billions in lost revenue while contributing to global warming.
Summary: while the war in Gaza grinds on with unabated ferocity other regional conflicts continue in the Middle East making the region the most volatile and unstable in the world.
Summary: even taking into account the uptick in the price of oil since 7 October, markets remain calm in the face of the Israel/Hamas war. Both history and current events suggest that this is appropriate even though risks of serious escalations abound.
Summary: events in the past few days have added to already significant uncertainties around the oil supply/demand equation. Nonetheless the latest Gaza war is unlikely to impact the price of oil.
Summary: the Derna disaster demands an immediate response but already the Haftar clan is holding survivors hostage as it attempts to control the reconstruction effort.