Turkey still poised to extend its invasion of northern Syria, but faces uncertainties with US and Russia.
Mahmud Abbas and senior Palestinian officials have had high-level exchanges with Russia, Italy and the Vatican. Palestinian unity over a US resolution at UNGA proves short lived.
MBS visited six Arab states before and after the G20. Proof of confidence he is under no threat at home. Governments toe the line of friendship, with some rewards. Problems in the Maghreb.
Saudi Arabia may or may not continue to bend to President Donald Trump’s wish to see the oil price go lower still. But there are good reasons to suppose that, whatever Opec decides on 6 December, the trend for the next few weeks at least may be upwards.
Syria – Idlib ceasefire holds. Turkey/Russia/Germany/France summit. Political agreement still elusive, many local problems.
Putin and Erdoğan agree a plan to avoid military action in Idlib, but the Idlib problem remains unsolved. Russian plane shot down by Asad forces, Putin cools it.
Syrian government assault on Idlib province begins. Warnings of a humanitarian catastrophe and talk of a chemical attack which would provoke US retaliation.
As the Syrian war ends, Syria’s role in Lebanon reasserted. Russia supports return of refugees to Syria, accuses US of stalling.
Elections in 2020, but Bashir likely to remain. Fighting continues in three areas but at a reduced level. Frozen out by the West, flirtation with Moscow.
Syrian government forces to target Idlib next. Complications with Israel, Iran, Turkey, Kurds, China, US, IS. Russia in the driving seat.