Summary: With the Saudis and the Emiratis falling out, speculation has increased that Opec’s days are numbered but there are persuasive short- and long-term reasons for the cartel to hang together.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in the midst of a public feud over production cuts with the potential to wreck OPEC+ and set off an oil market pricing brawl.
Arab Digest · Stepping Stones to a Secure Middle East
The Biden Administration will look to rein in Russia in the Middle East; but the latter will remain an ‘indispensable power’ in the region for the foreseeable future.
The latest OPEC+ agreement goes nowhere close to addressing the challenges the oil sector faces.
The oil price in 2020 has been highly volatile compared to last year and barring resumed tension in the Gulf it is unlikely to regain its losses soon, putting pressure on the Aramco valuation.
Saudi Arabia heads into the Vienna OPEC meeting facing stiff headwinds in its bid to secure a higher price for oil.