One year on from the launch of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ Arab Digest editor William Law invites the New Lines Institute’s Caroline Rose back to discuss how the war is impacting the Middle East diplomatically and politically and what a frontline attritional stalemate will mean for America’s relations in the region.
Summary: the war-induced scramble for hydrocarbons and calls from the majors for more investment in oil and gas output should not distract from an ongoing seismic shift to renewables which may advance ‘peak oil’ to as early as 2025, a scenario that will give pause for thought and serious consideration in Gulf energy states.
Summary: 2023 promises to be a very difficult year for many MENA countries with only the Gulf states escaping the long shadow of a deep economic slowdown.
Annelle Sheline from the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft joins Arab Digest editor William Law for a conversation about US foreign policy in the Middle East. Two years into the Biden presidency perceptions about America and its role have shifted dramatically in the region but the president and his advisors seem locked in a belief that little has changed.
Arab Digest editor William Law’s guest this week is Gulf State Analytics CEO Giorgio Cafiero. With relations between the US and key GCC players fraying, China has upped its game seizing both economic and diplomatic advantage. But with Washington remaining the Gulf’s security guarantor, the GCC will need to tread a balanced line.
Summary: after quadrupling their debt burden since 2014, the Gulf states are pausing new borrowing, thanks to reforms and the oil windfall. Oman and Qatar are even actively deleveraging. However, Bahrain and Sharjah remain in precarious positions.
Summary: the Gulf states are seeing Washington through far different eyes than Washington is seeing them. America is playing from an old playbook, without realising that the game has changed and nowhere is this more clearly highlighted than by Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Summary: as the UK economic and political crisis winds through its extraordinary saga, Britain’s Gulf allies, like everyone else, is wondering who is in charge.
Summary: if it is the case that yet another parliamentary election produces more bickering and gridlock between the ruling family and MPs then once again Kuwaiti women will be the biggest losers.
The Arab Digest podcast conversation this week takes a hard look at US foreign policy in the Middle East under President Joe Biden. Digest editor William Law’s guest is Jon Hoffman, a geopolitical analyst and commentator. Hoffman sees Biden’s approach as a continuation of decades of failed policies that have served neither the US nor the people of the region well.
