Syria – Idlib ceasefire holds. Turkey/Russia/Germany/France summit. Political agreement still elusive, many local problems.
Erdoğan shrugging off what appears to outsiders an economic crisis. How far will he take his criticisms of the US?
Syrian government forces to target Idlib next. Complications with Israel, Iran, Turkey, Kurds, China, US, IS. Russia in the driving seat.
The boundaries of Arab states, mainly drawn by colonial powers, have shown remarkable durability. In some instances, these boundaries have been challenged but such challenges have generally failed to change the map of the region.
Turkey is Israel’s sixth largest trade partner but the Palestine issue poisons relations; the Turkish public and opposition demand action over Gaza; Turkey and the US also bitterly at odds over a range of major issues.
a euphemism for extra judicial killing to protect the reputation of a family. Ancient and widespread, but information other than anecdotal exceptionally hard to find.
Turkish intervention in Afrin bogged down. Israel loses an F-16 and retaliates against Syrian and Iranian positions. Outlook stormy. In our posting of 29 January we quoted Charles Glass on the war in Syria: “The latest phase has little to do with Syria, apart from the fact that it’s taking place there.” Since then the bloodshed has continued in what the UN describes as “Even by Syria’s atrocious standards.. exceptionally deplorable developments”, with at least 277 civilians killed between 4 and 9 February, most of them in “airstrikes by the …
Iraq will hold parliamentary elections on 12 May. The formation of electoral coalitions is well underway and is producing some surprising bed-fellows. Prime Minister Abadi, despite his success in defeating Da’esh and curbing the Kurds, may not be returned to office.
Following the independence referendum last September, Iraq’s Kurds are in a state of financial and political crisis. It will probably take months to negotiate a settlement between Erbil and Baghdad.
Outlook for the Islamic “state” bleak as a state, but cheap wins globally. Failed or predatory states fertile ground for ISIS and al-Qaeda.