Summary: what seemed a certainty has now bogged down and the Vienna talks are at risk of stalemate with America’s Gulf allies finding themselves caught between a rock and a hard place, on the one hand worried that either the US will do a deal that gives away too much and leaves them in the lurch or on the other that a no deal scenario will further heighten their regional insecurity fears.
Summary: when the Israeli foreign minister met in the Negev Desert with his counterparts from four Arab states together with the US secretary of state, most commentators hailed it as significant, which it may well be but for reasons other than those proclaimed.
Summary: failure by OPEC+ to boost oil output may bring a short-term revenue boost but it also risks reaping the proverbial whirlwind.
Summary: whether the Ukraine crisis justifies the current outbreak of bullishness over oil remains uncertain. But what it almost certainly does do is open up new opportunities for the majority of MENA’s hydrocarbons producers.
Summary: as Russia menaces Ukraine, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are watching events closely while continuing to benefit from the high oil prices the crisis has engendered.
Summary: when Qatar’s emir visits the White House 31 January he and President Biden will have pressing matters to address including LNG exports to Europe as worries mount that Russia’s Putin may turn off the gas taps.
Summary: with the world’s attention elsewhere, Gulf tensions are ratcheting upwards as the Houthis sling missiles and drones and the UAE and Saudi Arabia respond with devastating airstrikes.
Summary: Monday’s attack on the UAE’s national oil company was a brazen statement of intent designed to force the UAE’s hand in Yemen.
Summary: this year poses big challenges to the economies of the MENA region, many of which are already in deep trouble while a wealthy few will use their hydrocarbons revenues to ride out whatever rough weather comes their way.
Summary: Iran is seeking to maintain its successful asymmetric warfare advantages by attempting to secure a continuation of the status quo in Vienna, happy to trade short-term acquisition of nuclear weaponry for relief from sanctions and continued progress with its programme of regional interventions. With the United States pulling back, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are preparing themselves to be able to disrupt that status quo should it threaten them.
