Summary: as peak oil approaches, two decades of diversification have left the UAE relatively well cushioned against the economic downsides. However, and despite MbS’s efforts, Saudi Arabia looks like having to play catch-up into strengthening headwinds.
Summary: the renewal of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a win that takes down the temperature in the region and one that represents a setback for Netanyahu and a message for Biden.
Summary: the war-induced scramble for hydrocarbons and calls from the majors for more investment in oil and gas output should not distract from an ongoing seismic shift to renewables which may advance ‘peak oil’ to as early as 2025, a scenario that will give pause for thought and serious consideration in Gulf energy states.
Summary: with the JCPOA talks going nowhere and the Biden administration seemingly dismissive of the threat Iran poses to Middle East security whilst focussing on China and the war in Ukraine, the West may be sleepwalking towards a potentially disastrous conflagration in the region.
Summary: the UK has the opportunity to deepen trade relations with the GCC states who, even though China beckons, will need a strong counter-balance with the West to fully realise the goal of diversifying their economies away from hydrocarbons dependency.
Summary: 2023 promises to be a very difficult year for many MENA countries with only the Gulf states escaping the long shadow of a deep economic slowdown.
Summary: OPEC+ is due to convene next in early June but with a bull market resurgent the date may need to be pushed forward; however, right now is not the time.
Summary: persistent uncertainty around both economics and geopolitics makes forecasting the oil price through 2023 even more challenging than has been the case this year.
Arab Digest editor William Law’s guest this week is Gulf State Analytics CEO Giorgio Cafiero. With relations between the US and key GCC players fraying, China has upped its game seizing both economic and diplomatic advantage. But with Washington remaining the Gulf’s security guarantor, the GCC will need to tread a balanced line.
Summary: China has abandoned ambiguity and sided with the Gulf Cooperation Council where overwhelmingly its economic interests lie, disappointing a jilted Iran.
