Oil: a fine line

Summary: the IEA’s recent supply/demand shift closer to OPEC is premised on relatively bullish forecasts for both the Chinese and the US economy coupled with continued OPEC+ discipline. None of these is a given.

War in 2024

Summary: the oil market suggests that investors have, overall, learned to live with the current crisis in the Middle East, as well as the Russia/Ukraine war and China/Taiwan tensions. However, they still need to beware of less high profile war risk, consistent with the turbulent times in which we live. 

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