United Arab Emirates

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A missile launched by Yemen's Ansar Allah (Huthi) movement hit a building owned by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco in the eastern city of Dhahran on Tuesday

The Gulf and the US: shifting sands

Summary: as a consensus emerges that US hegemony in the Gulf is over and Washington continues to cast around for an acceptable exit strategy from the war with Iran, it is none too soon to consider how best the US could safeguard its national interests there into the longer term.
October 15, 2026
Saudi Arabia's energy minister has vowed a "serious" response to the deadly attacks on the kingdom's airports and oil and gas facilities by Yemen's Huthi movement.

Saudi Arabia and the Yemen dilemma

Summary: the Huthi offensive has heightened the challenge Saudi Arabia faces in its efforts to extricate the kingdom from the Yemen quagmire.
October 13, 2026
The words "The Qatari Embassy in Israel" projected onto Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv—a visual protest against Netanyahu's long-standing, state-sanctioned backchannel dealings with Doha.

Qatargate and Washington

Summary: much has been made of Qatar’s relationship with both Hamas and the Netanyahu government as a sinister plot; a Washington insider says the reality is far more mundane.
October 12, 2026
A photo provided by a Middle Eastern intelligence agency shows vessels for purported chlorine-based weapons with a building with architectural features resembling a barjeel in the background.

Sudan’s Chlorine Controversy 

Summary: allegations regarding the Sudanese Armed Forces’ deployment of weaponised chlorine gas have led to US sanctions. The Sudanese government firmly denies the claims, alleging it is a UAE-backed disinformation operation designed to distract from atrocities committed by the Rapid Support Forces. 
October 5, 2026
Riyadh's "Suez moment" arrives as Washington scales back its commitments, leaving the Gulf states to face regional rivals without an American shield.

Saudi Arabia’s ‘Suez Moment’

Summary: recent events have forced a recognition that the US hegemony in the Middle East is over. How the inevitable vacuum will be filled remains far from clear. But it is hard to be optimistic in the short to medium-term even though there is surely an opportunity for “a new beginning.”
October 1, 2026
Yemeni civilians in a Djibouti camp after crossing one of the world's most contested waterways, leaving behind looted property and livelihoods amidst collapsing international support.

Yemen’s people bear the brunt of the Huthi war

Summary: the Huthi offensive caught the IRG forces and the Saudis off guard and with rapid advances and the seizure of new territory it is the Yemeni people who yet again pay the price.
September 28, 2026
A photo from the 2023 Beijing summit that captured the beginning of the end for Washington's exclusive grip on Gulf security arrangements.

Dateline 10 September 2028

Summary: our contributor leaps ahead two years to 10 September 2028 - just ahead of the US presidential election - to project the trend line of current events in the Gulf and the US onto a future history of the region and the world.
September 10, 2026
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