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A missile launched by Yemen's Ansar Allah (Huthi) movement hit a building owned by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco in the eastern city of Dhahran on Tuesday

The Gulf and the US: shifting sands

Summary: as a consensus emerges that US hegemony in the Gulf is over and Washington continues to cast around for an acceptable exit strategy from the war with Iran, it is none too soon to consider how best the US could safeguard its national interests there into the longer term.
October 15, 2026
Iran-backed militias, funded by the Iraqi state, celebrate National Day in the streets of Baghdad, Saturday 3rd October.

Iraq’s militia deadline is losing its leverage

Summary: Baghdad has backed down from its efforts to disarm Popular Mobilisation Forces pushing the deadline back to 2027 thus sending a clear signal that for now at least it has neither the political clout or the hard power to bring the militias under its control.
October 6, 2026
Riyadh's "Suez moment" arrives as Washington scales back its commitments, leaving the Gulf states to face regional rivals without an American shield.

Saudi Arabia’s ‘Suez Moment’

Summary: recent events have forced a recognition that the US hegemony in the Middle East is over. How the inevitable vacuum will be filled remains far from clear. But it is hard to be optimistic in the short to medium-term even though there is surely an opportunity for “a new beginning.”
October 1, 2026
A photo from the 2023 Beijing summit that captured the beginning of the end for Washington's exclusive grip on Gulf security arrangements.

Dateline 10 September 2028

Summary: our contributor leaps ahead two years to 10 September 2028 - just ahead of the US presidential election - to project the trend line of current events in the Gulf and the US onto a future history of the region and the world.
September 10, 2026

A new chapter for Syria’s Kurds

Summary: Syria’s Kurds have moved into a new relationship with Damascus. However integration has proved a difficult challenge with the interim government of Ahmed al-Sharaa needing to do more work to convince Kurds they will have a meaningful place in the new Syria he is attempting to build.
September 3, 2026
Syrian Security forces thwart an attempt to smuggle a shipment of "advanced weapons" and missiles across the Iraqi border, intended for Hezbollah, 16 July 2026

Iraq and Syria: a cautious courtship

Summary: Iraq and Syria have long distrusted one another but economic necessities and the Iran war are leading to a warming in relations.
August 21, 2026
Representatives meet in Damascus to draft Syria’s new anti-money laundering strategy, aiming for international standards while banks manually screen transactions without modern software.

MENA and the flaws in FATF

Summary: five MENA countries are on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey-list “for increased monitoring for strategic deficiencies in their anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, and counter-proliferation financing frameworks”. Getting off the list may be down more to politics than process.
August 20, 2026
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