Qatargate and Washington
Summary: much has been made of Qatar’s relationship with both Hamas and the Netanyahu government as a sinister plot; a Washington insider says the reality is far more mundane.
Qatar
Dateline 10 September 2028
Summary: our contributor leaps ahead two years to 10 September 2028 - just ahead of the US presidential election - to project the trend line of current events in the Gulf and the US onto a future history of the region and the world.
Arab Digest top five podcast countdown: #2 The Gulf and three mad countries
Summary: a top GCC analyst lays bare the blunders and the security crisis the Iran war has provoked in the Gulf states.
Egypt: State & Barracks
Summary: Egypt was left out of the tripartite Mecca Pact signalling military weakness while military industries further strengthen their stranglehold on the economy; a militarised transportation system leaves scores of workers dead and injured; a luxury Mediterranean coastal project launches in the midst of a land compensation battle.
Arab Digest top five podcast countdown: #3 How hard has the war hit GCC economies?
Summary: the GCC is on the frontline of the Iran war making the economies of the six states vulnerable to events they are deeply affected by but have a limited say in influencing.
How Sheikh Hamad Transformed Qatar into a Geopolitical Juggernaut
Summary: Qatar’s former "Father Emir," Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, has died aged 74. During his life he oversaw the transformation of his nation from a regional backwater into a global economic and geopolitical power through natural gas development, bold foreign policy, and soft-power milestones like Al Jazeera and the 2022 World Cup.
Algeria Loses its Way
Summary: a record low turnout in Algeria’s recent election is a reflection of how the North African state has failed its citizens while benefitting a select elite through a crony capitalist system and a stagnant status quo backed by the military.
The slide toward a regional cataclysm
Summary: following the killings of US service members in Jordan and Iraq, a major military escalation between the United States and Iran has collapsed their previous ceasefire agreement, threatening to spark a comprehensive, multi-front war that could devastatingly target civilian infrastructure and choke global energy supplies.
Oil: In Support Of My Forecast
Summary: the price of crude has fallen still further since I revised my year-end forecast on 22 June. It may yet go further still thanks largely to an accumulated glut of oil now exiting the Gulf. However, this “supply wave” may bring no more than temporary relief from an otherwise bullish market.
Syria and Israel: odd bedfellows?
Summary: the billions of dollars that are supposed to flow into a reconstruction fund to rebuild a war-ravaged Syria are yet to arrive and there are conversations in Damascus that tie the delay to Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Unhappy neighbours: Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Summary: it has been a long time since the UAE and Saudi Arabia have seen eye to eye and the Iran war and subsequent MOU have done little else but paper over the cracks.
Canned: Aluminium takes a hit
Summary: aluminium is in short supply globally due to the drop in output from the Gulf, driving up prices. With two smelters damaged by attacks, it will take over a year for production to get back on track.
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