Saudi Arabia and the Yemen dilemma
Summary: the Huthi offensive has heightened the challenge Saudi Arabia faces in its efforts to extricate the kingdom from the Yemen quagmire.
Oman
The Red Sea’s emerging two-shore axis
Summary: a recent study reveals that Yemen’s Huthis are expanding their networks along the African coast; their recent seizure of the Red Sea coastline has heightened concerns that security in the crucial waterway is now highly compromised.
Navigating the Strait of Hormuz toll, US sanctions and maritime law
Summary: the Strait of Hormuz is still not open for traffic, with the US targeting Iranian oil tankers and imposing more sanctions as the standoff continues, while differing views on maritime rights are further muddying the waters.
Saudi Arabia’s military defeat in Yemen has global consequences
Summary: a failed Saudi-backed ground offensive enabled Huthi forces to capture critical Red Sea territory, seize Western weaponry and severely disrupt global energy markets.
Oil: The Donald And Demand Destruction
Summary: fresh US sanctions are unlikely to hurry the Iranians back to the negotiating table. But the current upward trend in the oil price and the consequent risk of permanent demand destruction may, in due course, subdue the hardliners in Tehran, especially if China is goaded by Washington into exploiting its ‘swing consumer’ status to push prices higher still.
Arab Digest top five podcast countdown: #3 How hard has the war hit GCC economies?
Summary: the GCC is on the frontline of the Iran war making the economies of the six states vulnerable to events they are deeply affected by but have a limited say in influencing.
The slide toward a regional cataclysm
Summary: following the killings of US service members in Jordan and Iraq, a major military escalation between the United States and Iran has collapsed their previous ceasefire agreement, threatening to spark a comprehensive, multi-front war that could devastatingly target civilian infrastructure and choke global energy supplies.
Oil: In Support Of My Forecast
Summary: the price of crude has fallen still further since I revised my year-end forecast on 22 June. It may yet go further still thanks largely to an accumulated glut of oil now exiting the Gulf. However, this “supply wave” may bring no more than temporary relief from an otherwise bullish market.
Canned: Aluminium takes a hit
Summary: aluminium is in short supply globally due to the drop in output from the Gulf, driving up prices. With two smelters damaged by attacks, it will take over a year for production to get back on track.
Oman makes economic gains
Summary: Oman found itself the target of Donald Trump’s threats but the Gulf state which worked hard to prevent the war is, unlike its GCC neighbours, seeing economic benefits.
The IMF is asking different questions about Gulf risk
Summary: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz requires new and searching questions to be asked about the risk landscape for the economies of the GCC states once the war ends.
Underwater cables and the Iran war
Summary: with the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea serving as chokepoints in the global internet cabling system the Iran war has underlined a little discussed vulnerability not just for the region but the world.
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