Libya

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Thousands of migrants stormed into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta from Morocco in just a matter of hours, overwhelming border police as people swam around breakwaters, scaled border fences, and rushed through entry points.

Morocco needs a new economic growth model

Summary: despite promises to be the ‘King of the Poor,’ Morocco’s Mohammed VI has embraced an economic model that is impoverishing a majority, particularly young Moroccans, whilst further enriching a privileged elite.
September 7, 2026

How Sheikh Hamad Transformed Qatar into a Geopolitical Juggernaut

Summary: Qatar’s former "Father Emir," Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, has died aged 74. During his life he oversaw the transformation of his nation from a regional backwater into a global economic and geopolitical power through natural gas development, bold foreign policy, and soft-power milestones like Al Jazeera and the 2022 World Cup.
July 30, 2026
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune casts his ballot amid a record 78% voter abstention, highlighting deep public disillusionment with Algeria’s military-backed ruling elite.

Algeria Loses its Way

Summary: a record low turnout in Algeria’s recent election is a reflection of how the North African state has failed its citizens while benefitting a select elite through a crony capitalist system and a stagnant status quo backed by the military.
July 27, 2026

Sudan: three years of the EU looking the other way

Summary: the EU chose to put economic considerations ahead of firm action to prevent a genocide in the Sudanese city of El-Fasher. Now another Sudanese city faces the same fate. Action not words is required from the EU.
July 15, 2026
Deep-seated geopolitical tensions over Yemen, Sudan, and the Red Sea are compounded by the UAE's exit from OPEC, which threatens to spark a future world oil price slump that Riyadh views as a direct threat to the Saudi economy.

Unhappy neighbours: Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Summary: it has been a long time since the UAE and Saudi Arabia have seen eye to eye and the Iran war and subsequent MOU have done little else but paper over the cracks.
June 23, 2026
The UAE is cultivating a network of UK far-right influencers and politicians, including Tommy Robinson and Nigel Farage, to amplify its regional narratives and sanitize its interventionist foreign policies

What is going on with Tommy Robinson and Yemen?

Summary: we planned to publish this newsletter about the far right influencer and his links with the UAE on 2 March but the Iran war intervened. We are publishing it now because it is an important story that details what Robinson has been up to and also explores the links Reform’s Nigel Farage and Richard Tice have with the UAE.
March 16, 2026

Europe’s Untapped Gas Opportunity: North Africa’s $6 Billion Flares

Summary: the US/Israel war on Iran creates a big gas opportunity for North Africa and Europe. By capturing its wasted gas North Africa can generate around US$6 billion in additional export revenues while Europe can diversify its supply and strengthen energy security and the planet benefits from lower CO₂ and methane emissions.
March 10, 2026

MENA youthquake

Summary: the MENA’s youth bulge and the highest youth unemployment rates globally poses major challenges for much of the region now and in the future.
February 23, 2026
Efforts to develop Libyan offshore resources are complicated by territorial disputes between Greece and Türkiye, as well as internal power struggles that transform energy assets into volatile security risks.

Huge challenges for Libya’s gas ambitions

Summary: Libya is a broken state which means its plans to develop its gas fields, especially offshore, face major obstacles. The power games currently unfolding on land and at sea suggest that it is wishful thinking to expect Libya to offer more gas to Europe in the years ahead.
February 6, 2026
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