Lebanon

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Iran-backed militias, funded by the Iraqi state, celebrate National Day in the streets of Baghdad, Saturday 3rd October.

Iraq’s militia deadline is losing its leverage

Summary: Baghdad has backed down from its efforts to disarm Popular Mobilisation Forces pushing the deadline back to 2027 thus sending a clear signal that for now at least it has neither the political clout or the hard power to bring the militias under its control.
October 6, 2026
Riyadh's "Suez moment" arrives as Washington scales back its commitments, leaving the Gulf states to face regional rivals without an American shield.

Saudi Arabia’s ‘Suez Moment’

Summary: recent events have forced a recognition that the US hegemony in the Middle East is over. How the inevitable vacuum will be filled remains far from clear. But it is hard to be optimistic in the short to medium-term even though there is surely an opportunity for “a new beginning.”
October 1, 2026
Iranian state-controlled media has released high-resolution satellite imagery confirming significant damage at Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Jordan.

Amman’s Dilemma

Summary: the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is caught in a vice; US bases there are the target of Iranian missiles and influential Jordanians are calling for the removal of the bases. But the US presence is part of the 1994 peace deal with Israel which is now threatening to drive Palestinians out of the West Bank and into the kingdom.
September 17, 2026
Syrian Security forces thwart an attempt to smuggle a shipment of "advanced weapons" and missiles across the Iraqi border, intended for Hezbollah, 16 July 2026

Iraq and Syria: a cautious courtship

Summary: Iraq and Syria have long distrusted one another but economic necessities and the Iran war are leading to a warming in relations.
August 21, 2026
Representatives meet in Damascus to draft Syria’s new anti-money laundering strategy, aiming for international standards while banks manually screen transactions without modern software.

MENA and the flaws in FATF

Summary: five MENA countries are on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey-list “for increased monitoring for strategic deficiencies in their anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, and counter-proliferation financing frameworks”. Getting off the list may be down more to politics than process.
August 20, 2026
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