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A missile launched by Yemen's Ansar Allah (Huthi) movement hit a building owned by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco in the eastern city of Dhahran on Tuesday

The Gulf and the US: shifting sands

Summary: as a consensus emerges that US hegemony in the Gulf is over and Washington continues to cast around for an acceptable exit strategy from the war with Iran, it is none too soon to consider how best the US could safeguard its national interests there into the longer term.
October 15, 2026
Saudi Arabia's energy minister has vowed a "serious" response to the deadly attacks on the kingdom's airports and oil and gas facilities by Yemen's Huthi movement.

Saudi Arabia and the Yemen dilemma

Summary: the Huthi offensive has heightened the challenge Saudi Arabia faces in its efforts to extricate the kingdom from the Yemen quagmire.
October 13, 2026
The Sudanese government has offered Russia a naval base in Port Sudan, an unprecedented perch overlooking critical Red Sea trade routes and Russia’s first naval base in Africa.

The Red Sea’s emerging two-shore axis

Summary: a recent study reveals that Yemen’s Huthis are expanding their networks along the African coast; their recent seizure of the Red Sea coastline has heightened concerns that security in the crucial waterway is now highly compromised.
October 8, 2026
Iran-backed militias, funded by the Iraqi state, celebrate National Day in the streets of Baghdad, Saturday 3rd October.

Iraq’s militia deadline is losing its leverage

Summary: Baghdad has backed down from its efforts to disarm Popular Mobilisation Forces pushing the deadline back to 2027 thus sending a clear signal that for now at least it has neither the political clout or the hard power to bring the militias under its control.
October 6, 2026
Riyadh's "Suez moment" arrives as Washington scales back its commitments, leaving the Gulf states to face regional rivals without an American shield.

Saudi Arabia’s ‘Suez Moment’

Summary: recent events have forced a recognition that the US hegemony in the Middle East is over. How the inevitable vacuum will be filled remains far from clear. But it is hard to be optimistic in the short to medium-term even though there is surely an opportunity for “a new beginning.”
October 1, 2026
Iranian state-controlled media has released high-resolution satellite imagery confirming significant damage at Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Jordan.

Amman’s Dilemma

Summary: the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is caught in a vice; US bases there are the target of Iranian missiles and influential Jordanians are calling for the removal of the bases. But the US presence is part of the 1994 peace deal with Israel which is now threatening to drive Palestinians out of the West Bank and into the kingdom.
September 17, 2026
Expatriates relaxing in an Erbil venue during the peak of international military and humanitarian intervention, a vibrant presence that has now largely vanished, leaving behind a legacy of stark economic inequality.

Erbil: departure of the expats

Summary: our contributor returns to Erbil to discover an altered city, one caught in political stasis and sharp inequalities of wealth.
September 15, 2026
A photo from the 2023 Beijing summit that captured the beginning of the end for Washington's exclusive grip on Gulf security arrangements.

Dateline 10 September 2028

Summary: our contributor leaps ahead two years to 10 September 2028 - just ahead of the US presidential election - to project the trend line of current events in the Gulf and the US onto a future history of the region and the world.
September 10, 2026
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