The oil price in 2020 has been highly volatile compared to last year and barring resumed tension in the Gulf it is unlikely to regain its losses soon, putting pressure on the Aramco valuation.
MBS’s tough handling of tribal leaders and development plans for Saudi mega-project Neom stoke internal criticism and are criticised as capitulation to Israel.
The military balance shifts against Turkey and its Arab allies as the YPG strikes a deal agreement with al-Assad and Russia backs Syria over Turkey.
Experts disagree about when we will hit peak demand for oil but as technological change continues to accelerate potential investors in the Aramco IPO should weigh its timing very carefully.
Istanbul election defeat accelerates gradual ebbing of the AKP’s popularity, but President Erdoğan still holds other cards; a slow down in Turkish foreign military activity.
MBS’s Asian tour; Kushner’s Middle East tour. Despite staunch support for MBS from the White House, Congress and the media still want action over Khashoggi. MBS’s survival remains by no means assured.
sectarianism is a symptom of the problem, not the underlying problem itself. Many of the region’s conflicts are more about ethnic identity and nationalism, but Arab dictators use sectarianism to bolster their positions.