Ref: AD-2994
Summary: as uncertainty escalates over just what Donald Trump is hoping to achieve with an Iran peace deal his efforts to bring more Muslim nations into the Abraham Accords fold has already backfired badly.
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If you’ll permit me a little cynicism …?!
“Why just at this moment Trump has pushed six other nations to join is curious to say the least”. Perhaps – but Trump is a bully who identifies and exploits vulnerability: most of those states are hurting financially as a result of Netanyahu’s and Trump’s war.
“Morocco have seen economic windfalls. […] And Sudan, […] has nothing to show other than massive civilian casualties” Morocco had its claim to the Western Sahara recognised by the US; since then more states have moved in that direction (including the UK) – a major win Sudan was removed from the US terrorism list, which should have brought it major financial benefits.
‘In a further surreal flight Trump announced that all six “would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords.”’ It is possibly surreal – and would probably involve more surrender than Trump is willing / able to offer – but the 2003 Fax shows that the IRI is (/ was) relatively hard-nosed about these things. (Any such bargain would be far more expensive to the US now, since it has demonstrated the limitations of its kinetic capability, absent a ground invasion.)
“The political landscape facing Trump is altogether different. […] Republicans are facing a mid-term wipeout.” Possibly so, although MAGA has just defeated two anti-Trump GOP candidates in primaries, so Trump may believe that he can see off the America Firsters. There’s also a point from Ed Luce in the FT a fortnight ago: “At a stroke, the judges have just added about a dozen seats to the Republican column. Republicans now have an estimated four percentage point advantage in House elections. My guess is that the anti-Republican wave in November will be larger than the party’s gerrymandered windfall. But the battle for control of the House will be much closer as a result.”
Throwing pro-Israel red meat to wavering Evangelical Christians might shore up that large element of his electoral base.
The Editor notes that while it is true Morocco got his blessing for its claim on Western Sahara Trump appeared to be referring to economic windfalls. As for Sudan the point about sanctions removal is well made but that Sudan is in the midst of a brutal civil war which has destroyed much of the country’s economy is something the president seems oblivious to. Concerning Trump’s primary wins, many critics both within and outside the GOP believe that with the president’s rising unpopularity being tied to his wagon may not be a blessing after all.
Is it too cynical at this critical time in US attempts to find a face-saving way out of the confrontation with Iran, also to see the sudden resurrection of plans for an extended Abraham Accords with Israel at its heart, as an opportunistic, if makeweight, ingredient in an effort to divert Netanyahu away from entrenched resistance to any diplomatic compromise with Tehran?