Ref: AD-2967
Summary: the ceasefire that Donald Trump accepted has stopped the war and with the president signalling he does not want a resumption Tehran has secured a significant victory over its greatest enemies.
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I have three comments on today’s Newsletter, if I may.
First, the NYT article is indeed very interesting and certainly worth reading in full, not least since in tells us a good deal about how the Trump Administration works in general. There are, nevertheless, two points which it notably misses. First, my understanding is that both the IDF and the Mossad were clear in meetings with Bibi before he went to Washington that the war he was proposing would almost certainly not result in regime change – at least not immediately. The best they could offer was that the resulting damage to the Iranian economy would be so great that, sooner or later, it would lead to another (economically driven) popular uprising which, this time, would perhaps succeed in ousting the regime. Second, the article does not try to explain why Donald Trump – someone who isn’t noted for deeply held and longstanding views (trade deficits and tariffs aside) – has such a deep and abiding animus against Iran; this link to an interview which was only recently released in full is helpful in this regard. My personal view is that this bit of Mr Trump’s personal history (which is entirely consistent to his propensity for bearing grudges and looking for revenge) is pretty important to understanding how we got to where we are today.
Second (and moving away from the NYT article), Lebanon, where Israel’s actions pose a major threat to the ceasefire as a whole. It is worth asking (as the Iranians surely are doing) if Mr Trump can get Israel to step back. Tehran will be well aware that Bibi has to call a general election this year and that no Israeli prime minister can afford to go into an election in a state of schism with Washington (as is underlined by Bibi patently lying about the extent to which Israel was consulted over the ceasefire terms). I suspect that the escalation in Israeli strikes since the ceasefire was announced is a reflection of concern that Mr Trump will order a halt. But the question remains will he?
One reason why he may not – and my third comment – is his base. Opinion polls continue to show that the vast majority of the MAGA faithful support the US strikes on Iran, ie about 36 percent of the US electorate. This group is largely made up of members of (white) evangelical churches which, at minimum, lean Zionist. That this group has remained solidly with Mr Trump (so far) means that the extent to which some of the mainstream press is claiming MAGA has split over Iran tends to be overstated. In fact, it is based largely on the public statements of a loud – and, to be fair, influential – minority (Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, MTG etc) while ignoring the pro-war outpourings of the likes of the influential Islamophobe Laura Loomer.
Unless body bags start coming back to the US in large numbers I can’t personally see any reason why the MAGA base would suddenly turn against Mr Trump over the war itself. Where the real danger to both the President and the GOP lies is in the impact of the war on the US economy, ie ‘affordability’ which will almost certainly be the decisive issue in the midterms…as would have been the case had there not been a war which has exacerbated an already challenging context for the GOP.