Ref: AD-2895
Summary: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent visit to Washington focused on arms deals and investment pledges, but was overshadowed by President Trump’s surprising commitment to intervene in the complex, regionally-fueled civil war in Sudan at the Crown Prince’s request. This involvement risks drawing Trump into a protracted conflict that has resisted prior diplomatic efforts and is now creating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
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Today’s newsletter is, in my view, thoughtful, balanced and timely. And it is by no means a lone voice in what might appear to be something of a wilderness. For example, a week ago I tuned in to The Economist’s World in 2026 webinar where Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes singled out the Horn of Africa for significant US attention in Donald Trump’s quest for a peace prize. Admittedly this was more or less ‘en passant’ among a swathe of higher profile issues; but she was clearly very serious about this as a quasi-forecast.
The printed version of the journal’s 2026 forecast has a much fuller assessment of prospects which includes the following:
“Various putative peace talks—in London, Washington and Geneva—failed in 2025. But things may look different in 2026. Donald Trump, ever keen on winning a Nobel peace prize, and fresh from his successes in the Middle East and his administration’s partial success in brokering a truce between Rwanda and Congo, has signalled an interest in a Sudanese deal, too. A proposed meeting of foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the uae in July was called off, reportedly because of disputes over the wording of a joint statement. But it offered a hint of what America might deliver were it to make Sudan a priority. It is still the only actor theoretically able to force the war’s belligerents—and their foreign backers—into the same room.”
However, the bottom line is, I think, consistent with that in the Newsletter in that the article’s best case is summed up as a “quick, dirty, Trump-backed ceasefire.”