Oil: How imminent is ‘peak demand’?

Summary: Experts disagree about when we will hit peak demand for oil, but as technological change continues to accelerate potential investors in the Aramco IPO should weigh its timing very carefully.

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3 thoughts on “Oil: How imminent is ‘peak demand’?”

  1. Re: the Saudi Aramco attack and the suggestion that it was an “inside job”. I heard from a source a very similar claim. I declined to use it in any of the interviews I have given simply because it is unsubstantiated and supported by no evidence whatsoever. It also runs the risk of putting an already under siege Shia community in the Eastern Province at even greater risk of a harsh response and abuse at the hands of the Saudi government, who will, should it decide not to challenge Iran (which appears increasingly likely) be looking for convenient scapegoats

  2. This was a very surgical strike because although the Abqaiq plant is well known to be a production and export bottleneck only a few people within Aramco know exactly which specific points to target. So this is a significant achievement and it means there must be expert informers working inside Saudi Arabia – probably senior Aramco Shia loyal to Iran. Aramco is 60% Shia.
    The damage done is more than 50%, it is 70%, but the Saudis have their own oil reserves and they are going to play a trick by pumping oil from them to make it look like they have repaired the damage. It is extremely important to them that they do this as they need global confidence in the Saudi leadership to be regained. The world relies on Saudi oil and it demands a leadership that can guarantee the flow. Oil from their own reserves could come online immediately but they will give it a few days for credibility. It is going to take at least six to eight weeks to get back to normal.

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