Ref: AD-2948
Summary: the Iran war has upended energy markets and with great uncertainty about where this war is taking the region and the world all bets are off about what the price of oil will be at the end of 2026.
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A wise and helpful comment. Nevertheless, forecasting the price of oil remains a mug’s game!
Mr Luce via Mr Newton writes “Anyone who claims to know where this conflict will go is bluffing.” While we may not know where it is going, we can assess where it is not going.
Absent major reinforcements, it is unlikely that there will be a US invasion.
The regime – which lived through the terrible Iran vs Iraq war – has unsurprisingly not collapsed. Both Israeli and US aims of regime change would not be acceptable to those likely to lose their lives (and livelihoods) under regime change, so a ceasefire on those terms is unlikely to occur.
We also know that stocks of offensive and defensive missiles had been severely depleted by US operations in 2025 against Yemen and Iran (and defending Israel from Iran in the 12 Day War), risking preparedness to fight China over Taiwan, whence that other key resource – semi-conductors – flow. The former resulted in a “score draw” and US extraction on condition that the Huthis agreed not to attack US vessels again. It is unlikely that the US has greatly more resources now, so a long, attritional air war to the defeat of the IRI seems equally unlikely.