Summary: the establishment of diplomatic relations with the UAE and Bahrain, coupled with further Israeli encroachments in the West Bank signal that the ‘deal of the century’ will prevail.
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Excellent piece as ever.
A tiny correction:
You wrote: (In June, 2020 the Johnson government merged the department with the Foreign Office)
To be precise, the announcement was in June. The merger happened on September 1st.
Not only has the UK Government moved a long way in Israel’s direction, but so has much of the UK Establishment. Last winter, the Church of England released a document “God’s Unfailing Word” (https://www.churchofengland.org/sites/default/files/2019-11/godsunfailingwordweb.pdf), parts of which could have been written by members of Likud. So could much of the BBC’s (“Why you can trust us”) ME coverage, such as this morning’s “Israel’s borders explained in maps ” (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54116567)
It was also noticeable that the joint statement with Bahrain spoke only of “to enable the Palestinian people to realize their full potential” (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-bahrain-usa-trump-idUSKBN2622JK) rather than a viable Palestinian state.
What the Israelis and their backers intend to happen to the Palestinians is unclear, apart from wishing the “problem” will go away. That’s unlikely to happen.