Summary: Iraqi forces need the support of the mainly Sunni population while pushing back IS in Anbar province.
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1 thought on “Iraq: al-Abadi’s dilemma”
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· All Iraqis look at al-Abadi as a weak leader who lost control of the country. Yes he tried to bridge the gap between rival sectarian communities but he failed. His family and academic background did not help that much. He is still a member of the Shi’ite Dawa Party (copy of Muslim Brotherhood). He was asked to resign from the party to be seen as a prime minister of all Iraqis but he refused! Nobody can rule Iraq without power. He does not have that power.
· He dismantled the country’s patronage system. He cancelled the post of Vice President. However, Al Maliki and Alawi who are holding those positions still acting as VP. Talk but no action that would impact the Iraqis daily life.
Who controls Iraq :
o IS controls 1/3 of the country.
o Shia militias who are trained, funded and backed by Iran. There are more than 70 factions in Iraq control the street and government institutions. Abadi has limited influence on the Shi’ite militias. In some cases abductions and killings took place in full view of local authorities, who failed to intervene
o Gangs and corruption by members of the government and parliament
· The fall in the oil price made the situation worse. The fall in oil prices is forcing a painful reckoning with how Iraq has conducted its economic affairs. When oil was selling at $90 to $100 a barrel, the norm in recent years, the cash fed a corrupt political system based on patronage. Instead of investments in public services, the money fed an unsustainable expansion of government payrolls, and with it a rise in consumer spending, highlighted by shopping malls that have sprouted up in Baghdad in recent years. The good news is that RFIB successfully managed to provide PV for 2 malls and working on the third.
· To pay its bills, the country is drawing on roughly $40 billion in reserves, which experts say will run out in 12 to 18 months. But Iraq is pursuing other options. The government is working with advisers from Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan and Citibank, and may renew efforts to sell bonds on the international market.
· The International Monetary Fund is also working with the government on its budget, part of a process that could lead to billions of dollars in loans.
· There is a general demand in Iraq for activating the private sector and privatizing industrial projects. This offers a good opportunity for RFIB.
· The only way out of the current crisis is for the government to look beyond stopgap measures and instead develop large-scale economic plans the general population can contribute to and benefit from.
The Iraqis are hoping that 2016 will be the end of IS. An American Special Operations force (ETF) has been arriving in the area in recent weeks. 2 US bases are already in place. A new technocratic government will be established in weeks. Let’s hope we are moving toward a better position.