Ref: AD-2803
Summary: Israel’s 13 June and subsequent strikes on Iran have thrown up more questions than they have answered. The signs are that both the conflict itself and the consequent heightened uncertainty are set to drag on for some time to come.
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As noted in the Newsletter, having spiked to around US$80pb early Friday, Brent had already slipped just below US$75pb by the weekend, ie pretty much where it was on 1 January. It has fallen by a further buck in early trading today despite ongoing intensification of the war. We are still around 12 percent higher than we were at the start of last week; and there is certainly no guarantee that it’s all downhill from here. But this still looks remarkably like the pattern we’ve seen on the back of an escalation in the Middle East since 7/10/23.