Ref: AD-2779
Summary: despite progressing technical talks between White House negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, significant uncertainties remain regarding the goals and duration of a potential agreement, especially given Iran’s preference for immediate sanctions relief through a “skinny” deal.
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If confirmation were needed of Jon Alterman’s caution over a ‘quick win’ for the US president, news this morning that this weekend’s proposed round of talks has been postponed sine die (and without any concrete reasons being given) is surely sufficient. Although it would, in my view, be wrong to read very much into this – other than it underlining the established challenges – it is notable that hit comes immediately after the Trump Administration announced fresh sanctions on entities allegedly doing business with Iran and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had posted as follows: “Message to Iran: We see your lethal support to the Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing. You will pay the consequence at the time and place of our choosing.” Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (who is almost certainly on the shortlist for the now vacant National Security Advisor job) promptly re-posted. Sympathy for the Iranians should not be overdone. Quite apart from other considerations, Mr Alterman is absolutely correct to underline what tough negotiators they are (I recall, eg, the protracted back and forth over the status of the UK embassy in Tehran in the aftermath of the liberation of Kuwait); but I can’t help but have some sympathy with their claim that all this is “further proof of the American decision-makers’ contradictory behaviour and lack of good faith”.