Ref: AD-2978
Summary: America’s withdrawal of its last remaining forces in Northeast Syria is a significant moment for Syria, one that rivals Türkiye and Israel will see as an opportunity to exploit. Further risks to the country’s fragile stability may also come from a re-emerging ISIS.
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An interesting article, as usual, covering what is an overlooked event of some importance. However, the writer seems to have forgotten all about Russia which maintains two bases in the country, both of which seem to be expanded. There also seems to be some Russian presence in the South of the country. Could that have a positive influence as far as Türkiye and Israel are concerned in terms of putting a break on their ambitions in the country?
Thank you George for highlighting this important point. Russia absolutely remains an important actor. One of the striking dynamics is that Moscow has managed to outlast its former ally Assad and even consolidate its military foothold on the Syrian coast. Al-Sharaa has visited Moscow and appears to be trading continued Russian military access, at least for now, for economic and political support at a critical moment for reconstruction.
An emerging layer I did not have space to explore is that al-Sharaa has also been courting Ukraine, including President Zelensky’s recent visit to Damascus (facilitated by Erdoğan) to deepen economic and security ties. That balancing act shows how much Russian influence has changed, particularly as Moscow continues to host Assad.
I’m a bit sceptical Russia is currently in a position to significantly restrain Turkish or Israeli ambitions inside Syria. Neither are seeking direct friction with Russian forces, and Russia’s presence may impose some limits at the margins. But in post-Assad Syria, Moscow appears to no longer be a decisive arbiter. That said, it will be important to see whether Russia’s role changes with the US military now gone, even if it is now one of several potential counterweights.