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After the Ayatollah

Arab Digest Newsletter / / Azerbaijan, Egypt, Iran, Iraqi Kurdistan, ISIS, Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, UK, USA / 1 Comment

Ref: AD-2718

Summary: while Israel has dealt a massive blow to Iran’s Axis of Resistance and attention remains riveted on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal a former Middle East diplomat assesses scenarios for what may happen in Iran when the country’s Supreme Leader departs the stage. In the form of a diplomatic note, he addresses eventualities should Ayatollah Khamenei die or be incapacitated while circumstances are much as they are now, without speculating about the effects of potential future external disruptive events.

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1 thought on “After the Ayatollah”

  1. Alastair Newton

    I would like to add just one thought to Sir Richard’s expert analysis which is, I believe, not only consistent with his scenario-based approach but also supportive of it. It is not just the Islamic Revolution which is at stake here but also the financial wellbeing of many of those currently in power, especially among the leadership of the IRCG. This report from Janes published in October 2024 elaborates: https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-and-national-security-analysis/post/the-sources-of-iran-irgc-financial-empire-and-their-sustainability-in-the-medium-to-long-term

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