Ref: AD-3028
Summary: the announcement of a nuclear deal between the US and Saudi Arabia has raised concerns about an arms race in a region riven with war but Donald Trump’s demand that the Saudis join the Abraham Accords has thrown into question whether the deal can go ahead.
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The Abraham Accords seem to be an obsession of Trump’s, or whoever is whispering in his ear: At the end of May, when the 14 Point MOU was being signed, “Trump links Abraham Accords to any Iran deal”. The Arab states ignored it then, and KSA will probably ignore this demand now.
While “Saudi crown prince said he personally ‘doesn’t care’ about the Palestinian issue”, it is an issue which resonates with the Arab Street (who see a rather less sanitised version of the carnage than Western media portray.) Domestically, Vision 2030 seems to be running into some stiff headwinds, and there is the possibility of the expensive Yemen campaign re-igniting, so making such an unpopular move at a time like this would be unwise, even for an autocratic ruler.
To submit to Trump’s naked blackmail would be embarrassing no matter the subject (let alone the Palestinian-Israeli conflict), even at a good time. MbS has other options (Russia, China – even Europe!), and would probably gain kudos domestically and regionally if he stood up to Trump, who is also famous for always chickening out.
Just before the Newsletter was circulated, I posted on the Arab Digest Facebook page the text of a note I had circulated to my clients along similar lines to this assessment to which I would add the following:
1. It is very likely that the US was looking to head off offers from both Beijing and Moscow to support Saudi Arabia’s longstanding nuclear aspirations. Through his volte-face yesterday Donald Trump has made it, if anything, more likely that MbS will turn to one or other (or both) of these decidedly more dependable potential partners;
2. Although the Israelis will certainly be relieved that the deal now looks unlikely to go through, they too will certainly have been shaken by Mr Trump’s seeming willingness to go ahead without a Saudi/Israel Abraham Accord (and I simply do not believe that, as an unnamed White House official has claimed, the President was blindsided as Energy Secretary Chris Walsh “got ahead of his skis” even though the latter has a lengthy record of going off-piste);
3. As for the Iranians, smiles all round in Tehran, I am sure, especially among the hardliners who will seize upon the US’s clear willingness to abandon ‘gold standard’ non-proliferation conditions to argue even more strongly that any deal with the US must protect Iran’s own nuclear programme.
In short, the bottom line is that the only parties which will be happy with the way in which this has all unfolded (so far!) are China, Russia and Iran.